reasons, i.e., that no precise statements about causality or dynamics between money growth and inflation can be inferred from … its components. These shortcomings can be tackled by estimating inflation based upon a holistic approach and the … expansions of the monetary base caused by global lockdowns, and a crash in global productivity, on inflation. The main findings …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide … only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show … that the current high-inflation environment induces respondents to allocate considerable probability to the rightmost open …