We propose a methodology to look at violence in particular, and other aspects of quantitative historiography in general, in a way compatible with statistical inference, which needs to accommodate the fat-tailedness of the data and the unreliability of the reports of conflicts. We investigate the...

This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be...

Unverblümt und respektlos geisselt Taleb die Entwicklungen, die unserer Zivilisation immanent zu sein scheinen: Verantwortungslosigkeit, Falschheit, Unterdrückung des Individuums, Sein und Schein usw. Eigentlich ist dieses Buch des New Yorker Professors der philosophisch-ethische Unterbau zum...