Existing proofs of the asymptotic validity of conventional methods of impulse response inference based on higher-order autoregressions are pointwise only. In this paper, we establish the uniform asymptotic validity of conventional asymptotic and bootstrap inference about individual impulse...

Proxy structural vector autoregressions identify structural shocks in vector autoregressions with external variables that are correlated with the structural shocks of interest but uncorrelated with all other structural shocks. We provide asymptotic theory for this identification approach under...

This paper proposes the use of the bootstrap when the system Wald test is employed to test for linear restrictions in a stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The bootstrap test is conducted using the generalized least square estimator for VAR parameters, which takes account of...

Determining the co-integrating rank of a system of variables has become a fundamental aspect of applied research in macroeconomics and finance. It is wellknown that standard asymptotic likelihood ratio tests for co-integration rank f Johansen (1996) can be unreliable in small samples with...

In the prediction of quantiles of daily Standard&Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) returns we consider how to use high-frequency 5-minute data. We examine methods that incorporate the high frequency information either indirectly, through combining forecasts (using forecasts generated from returns sampled...