Motivated by dynamic asset pricing, we extend the dual pairs?theory of Dieudonné(1942) and Mackey (1945) to pairs of modules over a Dedekind complete f-algebra with multiplicative unit. The main tools are: a Hahn-Banach Theorem for modules of this kind; a topology on the f-algebra that has the...

The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important economic consequences. While the canonical domain of the fallacy is basketball, which continues to provide its strongest and most readily generalizable supporting evidence, the fallacy has...

A common explanation for African current underdevelopment is the extractive character of institutions established during the colonial period. Yet, since colonial extraction is hard to quantify, its precise mecha- nisms and magnitude are still unclear. In this paper, I tackle these issues by...

We consider decision makers that know that payo¤ relevant observations are generated by a process that belongs to a given class M, as postulated in Wald [33]. We incorporate this Waldean piece of objective information within an otherwise subjective setting a la Savage [30] and show that this...

Do childhood events shape adult political views and behavior? This paper investigates the impact of Fourth of July celebrations in the US during childhood on partisanship and participation later in life. Using daily precipitation data to proxy for exogenous variation in participation on Fourth...

Interactive epistemology in dynamic games studies forms of strategic reasoning like backward induction and forward induction by formally representing the players' beliefs about each other, conditional on each history. Work on this topic typically relies on epistemic models where states of the...

We analyze forward-induction reasoning in games with asymmetric information assuming some commonly understood restrictions on beliefs. Specifically, we assume that some given restrictions ? on players' initial or conditional first-order beliefs are transparent, that is, not only the restrictions...

This paper formulates a general theory of how political unrest influences public policy. Political unrest is motivated by emotions. Individuals engage in protests if they are aggrieved and feel that they have been treated unfairly. This reaction is predictable because individuals have a con...

We systematically assess the recursive performance costs–both ex-ante and ex-post–in recursive real time out-of-sample experiments of implementing diversification strategies that allow occupational investment vehicles (OIVs, like pension funds) to allocate wealth across available assets...

We examine whether the dynamics of the implied volatility surface of individual equity options contains exploitable predictability patterns. Predictability in implied volatilities is expected due to the learning behavior of agents in option markets. In particular, we explore the possibility that...