Showing 1 - 10 of 27,211
This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS … spread. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three measures of inflation expectations: the Livingston Survey …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
We consider model selection for non-linear dynamic equations with more candidate variables than observations, based on a general class of non-linear-in-the-variables functions, addressing possible location shifts by impulse-indicator saturation.  After an automatic search delivers a simplified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004135
We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation.  A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004145
When a model under-specifies the data generation process, model selection can improve over estimating a prior specification, especially if location shifts occur. Impulse-indicator saturation (IIS) can ‘correct’ non-constant intercepts induced by location shifts in omitted variables, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010730127
We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010709434
Although a general unrestricted model may under-specify the data generation process, especially when breaks occur, model selection can still improve over estimating a prior specification.  Impulse-indicator saturation (IIS) can 'correct' non-constant intercepts induced by location shifts in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008690102
Model selection from a general unrestricted model (GUM) can potentially confront three very different environments: over-, exact, and under-specification of the data generation process (DGP).  In the first, and most-studied setting, the DGP is nested in the GUM, and the main role of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799895
We consider model selection facing uncertainty over the choice of variables and the occurrence and timing of multiple location shifts. General-to-simple selection is extended by adding an impulse indicator for every observation to the set of candidate regressors: see Johansen and Nielsen (2009)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011052258
The new-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) includes expected future inflation to explain current inflation. Such models are estimated by replacing the expected value by the future outcome, using Instrumental Variables or Generalized Method of Momentsmethods. However, the underlying theory does not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285565