Il lavoro propone un’analisi comparata dell’andamento dei principali aggregati macroeconomici, reali e creditizi, nonché delle reazioni della politica monetaria in occasione delle più gravi recessioni attraversate dall’economia italiana. L’indagine, di tipo descrittivo, si concentra...

The paper analyses the medium-term objectives (MTOs) recently adopted by the EU Member States as a reference for the multilateral budgetary surveillance, assessing the ability of the new MTOs to promote long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper calibrates the (yet undisclosed) algorithm for...

A new test for hysteresis based on a nonlinear unobserved components model is proposed. Observed unemployment rates are decomposed into a natural rate component and a cyclical component. Threshold type nonlinearities are introduced by allowing past cyclical unemployment to have a different...

In this paper we compare the dynamic properties of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM) with those of QUEST III, the endogenous growth model of the European Commission (DG ECFIN) in the version calibrated for Italy. We consider an array of shocks often examined in policy simulations and...

In this paper, we investigate whether the completion of the Single Market Programme has enhanced competition on the product markets across European countries, while taking into account the companion structural reforms undertaken by the member countries. In particular, since the Single Market...

This paper studies the relationship between the two main dimensions of early-life environment, namely disease burden (measured by infant mortality) and economic conditions (measured by income or consumption per capita), and height and body-mass index (BMI) of recent cohorts of young adult males...

Italy promoted one of the most generous renewable support schemes worldwide which resulted in a high increase of solar power generation. We analyze the Italian day-ahead wholesale electricity market, finding empirical evidence of the merit-order effect. Over the period 2005-2013 an increase of 1...

In this paper we propose to exploit the heterogeneity of forecasts produced by different model specifications to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then to construct an empirical...

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policy in Italy by employing a database containing two statistical novelties: quarterly fiscal variables on accrual basis and a time series estimate of tax evasion for the period 1981:1-2006:4. Following Revenue Agency suggestions, we use in a VECM the...

We document the effects of a change in the replacement rate and potential duration of theItalian Ordinary unemployment benefits scheme on the job search process. As of january 2001, benefits were extended from 6 to 9 months selectively for workers aged 50 or more, and the replacement rate was...