We compare the predictive performance in forecasting the onset of large scale political violence worldwide of five statistical models and three commonly used fragility/instability indices using PITF and UCDP data for the period 2000-2015. We find that the models typically outperform the rankings...

This research note explains our approach to political violence forecasting employing a combinationof structural and automated event data. We have created four civil war onset models using data from 1979-1999 (in sample), which we then use to predict the onset of civil war from 2000-2016...

The growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in military applications has changed the way countries engage in war and in times of peace. With so many potential effects of military AI applications, both positive and negative, there is growing demand for international norms to govern their...

The growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in military applications has changed the way countries engage in war and in times of peace. With so many potential effects of military AI applications, both positive and negative, there is growing demand for international norms to govern their...