With a CGE model, we quantify the impact of the Customs Union between Turkey and the European Union (EU). Since the average tariff on non-agricultural imports will be less than 2 percent, the trade diversion costs of the Customs Union are quite small. Improved access to third country markets...

We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task, and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The...

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