We show that in a purely nonstationary Vector Autoregression (VAR), the biases of Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares Estimators are asymptotically proportional to the dimension of the system, even when the equations and regressors are generated independantly of each other. When some stable...

This paper investigates whether excess stock price volatility may be due in part to a failure of the market to form rational expectations. Using data on analysts' expectations of long run earnings growth for individual companies, we report a number of interelated results which lend support to...

In their empirical analysis of Real Business Cycle models for the UK, Holland and Scott (1998) find that they cannot reject the proposition that movements in output are largely determined by 'productivity shocks' which are independent of demand side variables, such as interest rates. In this...

Evidence that the term structure of interest rates does not satisfy the expectations hypothesis has been reported in a number of papers. However the nature and degree of this rejection is very sensitive to the exact specification of the tests. In this paper, we identify a source of small sample...

This paper argues that most of the facts charaterising small-scale businesses, including high failure rates, reliance on bank credit rather than equity finance, relatively low interest rate margins, and credit rationing, can be explained by a tendancy for those who are excessively optimistic to...

In this paper we try shedding light on the two popular questions on spectrum licensing auctions: [1] whether any geographical synergies between licences can be detected, and if so, what would be possible alternatives and pros and cons thereof, and [2] whether the provision of entrants-only...

This paper examines the argument that the availability of collateral rules out credit rationing. A model of the credit market with ex-ante asymmetric information and heterogeneous entrepreneurs' attitudes towards risk is set up. It is shown that, due to the interplay between project choice and...

This paper proposes a new approach for detecting the number of structural breaks in a time series when estimation of the breaks is performed one at the time. We consider the case of shifts in the mean of a possibly nonlinear process, allowing for dependent and heterogeneous observations. This is...

This paper builds on recent work describing relative job satisfaction. Using an ordered probit estimation technique we examine the job satisfaction of recent UK graduates. We focus primarily on explaining job satisfaction in terms of individual matching to jobs, with the match depending on...

This paper explores the impact of intensified tax competition within federal systems characterized by the presence of both horizontal tax externalities between the states and vertical tax externalities between states and federal government. It shows that although these point in opposite...