This study contributes to the relevant literature by providing an explanation on the reason and the economic conditions under which the spread proves to be such a powerful predictor of economic activity. For over two decades numerous studies have provided evidence on the predictive ability of...

This paper provides evidence regarding the performance of momentum investment strategies that is consistent with neoclassical theory. More specifically, while momentum investment returns appear orthogonal to systematic risk in the extant literature, this paper illustrates that they due to...

We present an incomplete markets model to understand the costs and benefits of increasing government debt in a low interest rate environment. Higher risk increases the demand for safe assets, lowering the natural rate of interest below zero, constraining monetary policy at the zero lower bound,...

We introduce bounded rationality, along the lines of Gabaix (2020), in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada's adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to provide a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic impact of flexible...

Occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) like the zero lower bound (ZLB) can lead to multiple equilibria, and so to belief-driven recessions. To aid in finding policies that avoid this, we derive existence and uniqueness conditions for otherwise linear models with OBCs. Our main result gives...

This paper studies the asset pricing implications of industrial pollution. A long-short portfolio constructed from firms with high versus low toxic emission intensity within industry generates an average return of 4.42% per annum, which remains significant after controlling for risk factors. We...

The worst financial and economic crisis to hit the world's richest economies since the Great Depression inspired a flood of scholarship that straddled the disciplines of law and macroeconomics. With few exceptions, this crisis scholarship did not set out to build a new interdisciplinary movement...

Keynes emphasized a specific situation in which the liquidity preference becomes absolute, leading to monetary policy ineffectiveness when nominal interest approaches the zero-bound rate. This situation was termed a liquidity trap (LT) by Robertson and was popularized by the Hicks- Hansen...

I construct a simple model with sticky prices and interest rate targets, closed by fiscal theory of the price level with long-term debt and fiscal and monetary policy rules. Fiscal surpluses rise followingperiods of deficit, to repay accumulated debt, but surpluses do not respond to arbitrary...

This paper studies the importance of heterogeneous beliefs for the dynamics of asset prices. We focus on currency markets, where the absence of short-selling constraints allows us to perform sharper tests of theoretical predictions. We examine both option and underlying markets, so that we can...