Common wisdom dictates that uncertainty impedes trade—we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. In equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and the variance in returns to exporting implying that...

According to national accounts data, value added per worker is much higher in the nonagricultural sector than in agriculture in the typical country, particularly in developing countries. Taken at face value, this "agricultural productivity gap'' suggests that labor is greatly misallocated across...

In this paper we derive a new measure of openness—trade potential index—that quantifies potential gains from trade as a simple function of data. Using a standard multicountry trade model, we measure openness by a country's potential welfare gain from moving to a world with frictionless...

This paper studies the dynamics of international trade flows at business cycle frequencies. We show that introducing dynamic considerations into an otherwise standard model of trade can account for several puzzling features of trade flows at business cycle frequencies. Our insight is that...

This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build a dynamic incomplete-markets model of migration in which heterogenous agents face seasonal income fluctuations, stochastic income shocks, and disutility of migration that...

Information frictions are often invoked to explain low levels of international trade beyond those that measured trade frictions (tariffs, transportation costs, etc.) can explain. But to explain why international trade is lower then domestic trade, home firms have to know something that...

This paper shows how variation in the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution can account for several puzzling features of cyclical fluctuations in international trade volumes. Our insight is that because international trade is time-intensive, variation in the rate at which agents are...

Common wisdom dictates that uncertainty impedes trade--we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. In equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and the variance in returns to exporting implying that trade...

Recent studies find that observational returns to rural-urban migration are near zero in three developing countries. We revisit this result using panel tracking surveys from six countries, finding higher returns on average. We then interpret these returns in a multi-region Roy model with...