Credit gaps are good predictors for financial crises, and banking regulators recommend using them to inform countercyclical capital buffers for banks. Researchers typically create credit gap measures using trend-cycle decomposition methods, which require many modelling choices, such as the...

The recent rise in populist governments has led to much work on the question "why now". Our work takes the next logical step by asking "what next?". That is, given populists in power, what should we expect to be the economic consequences of populist regimes. To answer this, we characterize...

This paper proposes an approximate solution of firm's optimal inattentive length in a standard macroeconomic model. The approximate solution conceptually fits a sticky-information model better, and predicts empirically more plausible inattentive length than the one proposed by Reis (2006)

Spanish Abstract: Los modelos de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (DSGE), parten de la teoría de equilibrio general aplicado que tiene influencia en la macroeconomía contemporánea. Su metodología explica los fenómenos económicos agregados, derivados de los principios...

Demographic change raises demand for non-tradable old-age related services relative to tradable commodities. This demand shift increases the relative price of non-tradables and thereby causes real exchange rates to appreciate. We claim that the change in demand a¤ects prices via imperfect...

Previous sharp oil price declines have been accompanied by elevated ex-post volatility. In contrast, volatility was much less elevated during the oil price crash in 2014/15. We provide evidence that oil prices declined in a relatively measured manner during 2014/15, with the dispersion of price...

Romanian Abstract: În 2010, piaţa internaţională a aluminiului s-a caracterizat printr-o evoluţie pozitivă, atât din punct de vedere al disponibilităţilor de metal, cât şi al revigorării preţurilor. Conform analiştilor de la Biroul Australian al Agriculturii şi Resurselor (The...