The evaluation of policy actions by means of macroeconomic models often begins with the analysis of multipliers. A rough analysis recommends to use those instruments that exhibit large multipliers. Government budget usually imposes some constraints on the policy action. Insted of the raw...

When dealing with nonlinear econometric models, resort is often made to simulation techniques for the investigation of their dynamic properties. A spectral analysis using stochastic and analytic simulation is carried out on a nonlinear model of the Italian economy. The two approaces are...

Some analytic simulation techniques for the analysis of the reduced form and of the dynamic properties of econometric models are described. Comparisons are made with analytical methods available for linear models.

This manual describes the input requirements and the installation procedures of the program for stochastic simulation of econometric models, announced in Econometrica, volume 46, number 1, (January 1978). This program is available on magnetic tape, including samples (Klein-I and Klein-Goldberger...

This paper deals with methods to estimate standard errors of dynamic multipliers. These methods can be applied to nonlinear macroeconometric models, thus extending methods available in the literature for linear models.

The importance of the simulation (both deterministic and stochastic) in the validation process of a non linear econometric model is underlined. Synthetic results of a large set of simulations on a non linear model of the Italian economy are presented. The benefits and the risks of the stochastic...

The problem of deriving asymptotic statistical properties of impact multipliers from a consistent estimate of a structural non-linear econometric model is discussed. The theoretical aspects, which generalize the results derived by Goldberger, Nagar and Odeh for linear models, are analyzed in...

At tbe IBM Pisa Scientific Center an interactive package has been developed under CP-67/CMS, which is particularly helpful when the data to be processed are time series. The interactive facilities of the operating system CP-67/CMS are strenghtened in such a way as to allow an easy interactive...

DMS/2 (Decisional Models Solution, version 2) is a computer package for solution of nonlinear econometric models. This technical report describes the new features that improve over the DMS-package.

The autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) estimation procedure provides a specification of the error terms as well as estimates of the coefficients. A simple interest rate equation is estimated using least squares and also using ARCH. Then the stochastic simulation methodology is...