We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires...

The real effective exchange rate of the dollar is close to its minimum level for the past 4 decades (as of September 2008). At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and current account deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, would contribute to a further...