peers and from experts with a large-scale online experiment with participants from the U.S. and the U.K. I find that … signals; all subject groups expect lower forecast errors for financial professionals than for laypeople, hence I also find …

realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over short rolling windows are somewhat successful in improving …

realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over short rolling windows are somewhat successful in improving …

realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over short rolling windows are somewhat successful in improving …

We present the results of an experiment where a random subset of the participants in the Bundesbank's household panel … receive personalized response scales, centered at each participant's point forecast. Personalized response scales offer two … advantages over the standard scale which is centered at zero inflation: First, they mitigate the impact of the central tendency …