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An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...
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concentrate on modeling the conditional mean. However, financial time series exhibit certain stylized features such as volatility … to address this issue and to gain insights on the volatility patterns of CDS spreads, bond yield spreads and stock prices … creditworthiness of debtors more reliably. The obtained findings suggest that volatility takes a significant higher level in times of …
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