Expected exchange rate changes are determined by interest rate differentials across countries and risk premia, while unexpected changes are driven by innovations to macroeconomic variables, which are amplified by time-varying market prices of risk. In a model where short rates respond to the...

Financial markets generally, and the spot foreign exchange market in particular, are reputed to be excessively volatile. Previous research has linked this excess volatility to private information. This article re-examines the theory and challenges that link. Empirical evidence suggests that...

In this paper we report estimates of the effective sterling, sterling/Deutsche mark and sterling/US dollar risk premia over a monthly 1987-2001 sample, generated using a conditional factor model for the stochastic discount factor of a representative worldwide investor. The model relates this...

Currencies do not depreciate enough to offset differences in interest rates. If specialist quot;carry tradersquot; and foreign exchange (FX) dealers are price-setters in equilibrium, this result is not surprising. Carry traders do not borrow in one currency and lend in another, as standard...

How do the risk factors that drive asset prices influence exchange rates? Are the parameters of asset price processes relevant for specifying exchange rate processes? Since most international asset pricing models focus on the analysis of asset returns given exchange rate processes, there is only...

This paper provides new evidence on the pricing of exchange risk in global stock markets. We conduct empirical tests in a conditional setting with a multivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification and time-varying prices of risk for the US and nine emerging markets to determine whether exchange risk is...

We provide new evidence on the pricing of exchange risk in the global stock markets. We conduct empirical tests in a conditional setting for ten developed markets and twelve emerging markets to determine whether emerging market currency risk affects emerging market equities and if it spills over...

This introductory note summarizes and draws together the work reported in eight research papers written by staff economists of the Board's Division of International Finance as part of a project on global financial integration. The eight papers are also International Discussion Finance Discussion...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naive random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The financial rates of return from Latin American stock and currency markets are found to be non-normal, non-stationary, non-ergodic and long-term dependent, i.e., they have long memory. The degree of long-term dependence is measured by monofractal (global) Hurst exponents from wavelet...