The forecasting performance of a Global VAR model of actual and expected outputs in the G7 economies is compared with that of alternative models to judge the usefulness of modelling cross-country interdependencies and employing survey data. Both effects are found to be important in...

While the public debt has an interior maximum in the Diamond OLG model, due to an inherent nonlinearity [Rankin and Roffia (2003)], this feature also extends to a linear, AK model when it is conjoined with a backward-looking adjustment process for public debt [Braeuninger (2005)]. We show that...

This paper examines whether credit constraints affect Chinese ï¬rms’ absorption of productivity spillovers originating from the activity of foreign-owned ï¬rms. Using ï¬rm-level data for 2001-2005, we ï¬nd evidence of positive spillovers originating from foreign-owned ï¬rms...

This paper examines the effects of elections on central governments’ fiscal policy conducts. We construct a unique database of disaggregated spending and revenue series at the central government level, for a panel of up to 107 countries over the 1975-2010 period. Using this data, we show...

Survey data suggests that news of changes in business conditions are significantly related to house prices and consumers' beliefs of favorable buying conditions in the housing market. This paper explores the transmission of "news shocks" as a source of boom-bust cycles in the housing market....

This paper examines growth forecasts of models that allow for crosscountry interactions and/or a time-varying variance plus feedback from volatility to growth. Allowing for these issues is done by augmenting an autoregressive model with cross-country weighted averages of growth and/or the...

This paper analyses optimal income taxation over the business cycle for households di¤erentiated by labour skill, income and wealth. A model incorporating capital-skill complementarity in production and di¤erential access to labour and capital markets is developed to capture the cyclical...

This paper examines the role of institutions in the nexus between public spending and economic growth. Using a newly assembled dataset of 80 countries over the 1970-2010 period, we show that only when institutions prompt governments to be accountable to the general citizen does the capital...