Most of the discussion about fiscal stimulus focuses on the multiplier of government spending on impact. In this paper we shift the focus to the multiplier at the end, i.e. to the period in which a deficit spending program terminates. We show that recent time series analyses as well as economic...

The authors performed a comprehensive time series segmentation study on the 36 Nikkei Japanese industry indices from 1 January 1996 to 11 June 2010. From the temporal distributions of the clustered segments, we found that the Japanese economy never fully recovered from the extended 1997-2003...

The output multiplier turns negative before a deficit spending program expires. We show the generality of this unpleasant finding for the standard real business cycle model. We then calibrate an extended model for the US and demonstrate how fiscal stimulus slows down economic recovery from...

From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany's formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external demand, in...

U.S. agricultural exports accelerated to $29.8 billion during the first 9 months of c, fiscal year 1984 (October 1983-June 1984), 12-percent above year-earlier values, despite lower volumes. U.s. agricultural imports during the first 9 'months, at $14 billion, moved 13 percent above.year-earlier...

U.S. agricultural exports climbed to $35.1 billion during the first 11 months of fiscal year 1984 (October 1983-August 1984), 10 percent above those for the same period in 1983, despite lower volumes in some products. There were increased volumes and values for feed grains, wheat~ and cotton,...

Nicaragua's economic performance in 2010 was satisfactory. Real GDP grew, supported by strong consumption and investment. Bank credit started recovering while the financial system remained liquid and profitable. Exchange-rate and monetary policy have contributed to macroeconomic stability. The...

This Article IV Consultation highlights that Senegal is pursuing its macroeconomic policies within an economic program supported by the IMF’s Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Executive Directors noted that signs of a recovery have become visible, and emphasized that prudent domestic...

The economy of Honduras contracted as a result of the global economic crisis. In the economic policy area, the authorities gave priority to strengthening the financial position of the public sector and restarting the external assistance. Measures are taken to strengthen the fiscal position, in...