This paper examines the interface between Henry Kissinger's operational code and his bargaining behavior during the Vietnam conflict. Kissinger's position at the pinnacle of the American foreign affairs hierarchy, amidst the existence of competing policy recommendations, may be regarded as...

This paper develops a new family of Bayesian semi-parametric models. A particular member of this family is used to model option prices with the aim of improving out-of-sample predictions. A detailed empirical analysis is made for European index call and put options to illustrate the ideas.

This article employs events data to compare two studies of crisis bargaining: a qualitative study by Snyder and Diesing based on comparative case studies, and a quantitative study by Leng and Wheeler. Three propositions are tested: (1) both disputants will adopt increasingly coercive bargaining...

This study addresses the impact of crisis management strategies, stress, and groupthink conditions on the integrative complexity of British decision makers in 10 decision-making episodes during two Anglo-German crises in 1938 and 1939. A systematic random sample of Prime Minister Neville...

This article introduces a new family of Bayesian semiparametric models for the conditional distribution of daily stock index returns. The proposed models capture key stylized facts of such returns, namely, heavy tails, asymmetry, volatility clustering, and the "leverage effect." A Bayesian...

This paper considers generating exchangeable partition probability functions from an independent and identically distributed sample from a geometric distribution. We show that the model is rich and while different from exchangeable random variables based on nonparametric models, such as the...