Data on the credit rating of bonds issued in the first half of the 1990s suggest that investors in emerging market securities paid little attention to credit risk, or that they were comfortable with the high level of credit risk that they were incurring. The literature in international finance...

The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the bond rating agencies did not anticipate the crises in Asia 1997-98 and in Argentina 2001. With this statement in mind, we consider some multi-stage inter-temporal stochastic optimisation models in international finance that imply...

The papers in this issue are concerned with the behaviour of exchange rates - their fundamental determinants, adjustment processes and policy implications. The authors combine theory with empirical evidence, test hypotheses as well as show the relevance of their analysis for policy. This...

Introduction/preface -- Failure of the Fed, IMF, academic profession to anticipate the crisis, disregarded warnings -- Failure of the Quants, mathematical finance models -- Philosophy of Stochastic optimal control approach, relation to M-V analysis; Sensitivity of optimal debt and risk to...

How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon...

We provide benchmarks to evaluate what is an optimal foreign debt and a maximal foreign debt (debt-max), when risk is explicitly considered. When the actual debt exceeds debt-max, then the economy will default when a "bad shock" occurs. This paper is an application of the stochastic optimal...

With the integration of Europe, there are free movements in goods, services, short and long term capital, and direct investment. The German mark is the key currency in Europe and its value will affect the equilibrium bilateral exchange rates of the other currencies in the EU. It is important to...

This interdisciplinary paper explains how mathematical techniques of stochastic optimal control can be applied to the recent subprime mortgage crisis. Why did the financial markets fail to anticipate the recent debt crisis, despite the large literature in mathematical finance concerning optimal...