I study the time series dynamics of commercial mortgage credit risk and the unobservable systematic risk factors underlying those dynamics. A first-passage model with equilibrium macroeconomic dynamics is presented, and the default hazard rate is solved. The solutions are then put into a state...

Using a novel data set, we study the soft information in subprime mortgages that is not verifiable by a third party, and its relationship with mortgage default. We find that lender effort to collect soft information is intertwined with borrower self-selection into subprime mortgages. We employ...

We study the determinants of the subprime mortgage loan spread, with a particular focus on funding liquidity and default-liquidity interaction effects. We find that sector-level as well as macro funding liquidity provision affected subprime loan rates, explaining a significant portion of the...

Using a unique dataset of building operating statements from Fannie Mae, we develop repeated measures regression (RMR) indices for NOI, EGI and PGI to track the cash flow performance of Fannie Mae-financed multifamily real estate. Our three-stage RMR estimate shows an average NOI growth of about...

We use a novel approach to calculate individual “financial literacy score” for a large set of California mortgage borrowers and then investigate the relation between financial literacy and mortgage outcomes. We find borrowers with low financial literacy are more likely to accept riskier...

We document the effect of policy-induced credit supply on fueling asset prices that lead to financial crises and broad economic outcomes. By comparing loans that fall under the current conforming loan limit (CLL) to those under the old limit last year in a difference-in-differences setting, we...

Using a unique dataset of building operating statements from Fannie Mae, we develop repeated measures regression (RMR) indices for NOI, EGI and PGI to track the cash flow performance of Fannie Mae-financed multifamily real estate. Our three-stage RMR estimate show an average NOI growth of about...

Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data, and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have significantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors....

Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have significantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors. A...

We present novel evidence showing how the financing choice of landlords impacts eviction decisions in rental markets. Since multifamily loans rely on timely rental payments, strict underwriting factors can increase the chances that landlords withstand income shocks. Lender provided relief may...