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Inefficient use of competitors' forecasts?

Reslow, André - 2019

forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012113630

"Déjà vol" revisited : survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables predict volatility in the cross-section of industry portfolios

Conrad, Christian; Glas, Alexander - 2018

We investigate the question of whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP growth from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters predict volatility in a cross-section of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914124

Evaluating the Bank of Canada staff economic projections using a new database of real-time data and forecasts

Champagne, Julien; Bellisle, Guillaume-Poulin; Sekkel, … - 2018

then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011921940

Asian development outlook forecast accuracy 2007-2016

Ferrarini, Benno - 2019

This is done in relation to the benchmark of World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections by the International Monetary Fund. Amid much heterogeneity across countries and years, it has been found that ADO and WEO projections overlap quite closely. Both are inaccurate, especially during crisis years,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011955528

Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058

Determinants of foreign direct investment flows to Pakistan

Hakro, Ahmed Nawaz; Ghumro, Ikhtiar Ali - In: Journal of Developing Areas 44 (2011) 2, pp. 217-242

This paper investigates the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in dynamic econometric model on Pakistan economy data set (1970-2007). VAR, VEC, generalized impulse response functions, Granger causality, forecasting, three stage least square econometric techniques are used in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213298

Money as an indicator in the euro zone

Gottschalk, Jan; Martínez Rico, Felipe; Van Zandweghe, … - 2000

This paper attempts to evaluate the information content of money for the forecast of inflation, output, investment and … their forecast performance. The evaluation employs Granger-causality tests, stability tests and historical out …-of-sample forecasts. On balance the information content of money appears to be rather limited. An improvement of the forecast is confined …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476936

Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Brissimis, Sophocles N.; Magginas, Nicholas - 2022

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on quarterly data spanning the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080663

Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of Its effects

Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206629

A Small Macroeconometric Model for the Cyprus Economy

Spanos, Aris; Papadopoulou, Niki - Central Bank of Cyprus - 2013

The single most crucial weakness of current macroeconometric modeling stems from the fact that modelers ‘quantify/estimate’ their structural modeldirectly, ignoring the fact that behind every structural model there is a statistical model whose validity vis-a-vis the data underwrites the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010908095