In this article, we study the point predictions that forecasters report when they are asked to predict the realisation of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the next realisation of random draws coming from different...

Survey questions that elicit point predictions regarding uncertain events face an important challenge as human forecasters use various statistics to summarise their subjective expectations. In this paper, we take up the challenge and study whether alternative formulations of the questions used...

We propose a flexible method to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function of an economic agent about the future realization of a continuous random variable. The method can closely approximate a wide variety of distributions while maintaining weak assumptions on the shape of...

This paper discusses the choice of the number of participants for within-subjects (WS) designs and between-subjects (BS) designs based on simulations of statistical power allowing for different numbers of experimental periods. We illustrate the usefulness of the approach in the context of field...

We propose a flexible method to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function of an economic agent about the future realization of a continuous random variable. The method can closely approximate a wide variety of distributions while maintaining weak assumptions on the shape of...