We consider the problem of calculating tail probabilities of the returns of linear asset portfolios. As a flexible and accurate model for the logarithmic returns we use the t-copula dependence structure and marginals following the generalized hyperbolic distribution. Exact calculation of the...

It is well known that for highly skewed distributions the standard method of using the t statistic for the confidence interval of the mean does not give robust results. This is an important problem for importance sampling (IS) as its final distribution is often skewed due to a heavy tailed...

We consider the problem of simulating tail loss probabilities and expected losses conditioned on exceeding a large threshold (expected shortfall) for credit portfolios. Our new idea, called the geometric shortcut, allows an efficient simulation for the case of independent obligors. It is even...

The standard method for generating multi-t vectors is simple and convenient but it has the disadvantage that the generated multi-normal and multi-t vectors are not similar. For t-copula models this destroys much of the variance reduction when using the result of the multi-normal model as...

The inversion method for generating non-uniformly distributed random variates is a crucial part in many applications of Monte Carlo techniques, e.g., when low discrepancy sequences or copula based models are used. Unfortunately, closed form expressions of quantile functions of important...