market. It finds that one cannot reject the hypothesis that investment banks price sovereign default risk well before crises …

on current spreads (a "punishment" effect in prices) from an indirect effect through higher expected future default … probabilities. Such a punishment provides positive surplus to lenders after a default, a feature that characterizes dynamic …

This paper finds that one can econometrically ascertain the determinants of default to the International Bank for … external factors in addition to economic variables. Default to the IBRD is seen to fall into a graduated hierarchy of default …, whereby default occurs first to Paris Club and Commercial Bank creditors, with subsequent default to the IBRD being triggered …