A presentation of an equilibrium bond-pricing model driven by two stochastic factors: the real interest rate and the expected rate of inflation. The models parameters are estimated using a maximum-likelihood technique based on a Kalman filter.

I study the effect of a temporary budget deficit, which is financed in the international capital market, on the exchange rate. First, I show that the exchange rate depreciates both in the short and in the long run if the government finances the deficit by selling debt denominated in foreign...