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This study investigated the magnitude of forecast improvements resulting from correction of inefficiencies in USDA cotton forecasts over 1999/00 to 2008/09 marketing years. The aspects of forecast performance included in this study were 1) bias and trends in bias, 2) correlation between forecast...
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This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions forWASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidencelimits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fiterrors expressed as a function of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009443736
This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008802890
It is commonly asserted that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures andover–the–counter derivatives … markets created a ‘‘bubble’’ in commodity prices, with the resultthat prices, and crude oil prices, in particular, far … situation in commoditymarkets are inconsistent with the existence of a substantial bubble in commodity prices.Third, available …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009446398
agricultural commodity prices experienced over the last several years. Commodity index traders (CITs) and other large institutional … traders are commonly accused of exerting a destabilizing influence on commodity prices. The intensity of the debate over the … role of CITs appeared to wane with the reduction in commodity prices since 2008 but the recent release of a well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008693730
It is commonly asserted that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures and overâ …€“the–counter derivatives markets created a ‘‘bubble’’ in commodity prices, with the result that prices, and crude oil prices, in … conceptually flawed and reflect fundamental and basic misunderstandings of how commodity futures markets actually work. Second, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005103127
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the Commodity Credit Corporation fell more than 25 percent in FY 1985 to about $2.8 billion from $3.8 billion in FY 1984 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010923320