Using adequate composite indicators, indeed together with other specific models, to analyse high frequency time series and to obtain sort-term forecasts can improve information for business environment, in modern era characterised by an accelerate process of changing. In our study we tried to...

This lecture examines the causes of the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession. On the macroeconomic side, the Great Moderation encouraged an overly optimistic assessment of risk. Combined with low interest rates, reflecting both loose monetary policy and relatively high Asian savings...

This paper estimates whether learning-by-doing effects or cleansing effects of recessions drive the endogenous component of productivity in the United States. Using Bayesian estimation techniques we find that external and internal learning-by-doing effects dominate. We find no evidence for...

In this essay we analyze the global financial crisis of the period 2007-2010. Particularly, we assess its origins, features and the responses given to deal with it from a theoretical and historical perspective. We conclude that the global crisis may not have a short-term solution due to the lack...

A spectral analysis of the Australian time series for the investment and savings ratio on monthly data over the period finds that the investment ratio is subject to a cycle of 6 months duration while the savings ratio series is concentrated on a longer swing of 4 to 6 years. The implications for...

A recent contribution to the literature argues that the present international monetary system in many ways operates like the Bretton-Woods system. Asia is the new periphery of the system and pursues an export-led development strategy based on undervalued exchange rates and accumulated foreign...

This work provides empirical evidence for a sizeable, statistically significant negative impact of the quality of fiscal institutions on public spending volatility for a panel of 25 EU countries over the 1980-2007 period. The dependent variable is the volatility of discretionary fiscal policy,...

We consider a Ramsey model with a continuum of Cournotian industries where free entry generates an endogenous markup. The model produces two different regimes, monopoly and oligopoly, resulting in non-smooth dynamics. We analyze the global dynamics of the model, demonstrating the model may...

This paper introduces both endogenous capital accumulation and deposit-in-advance requirements for investment in the banking model of Goodfriend and McCallum (2007). Impulse response functions from technology and monetary shocks show some attenuation effect due to the procyclical behavior of the...

We document the properties of business cycles using the dating algorithm by Harding andPagan (2002) on a quarterly database for 58 countries —21 industrial countries and 37 emerging market economies (EMEs)— from 1970q1 to 2007q4. We find that: (a) recessions are deeper, steeper and costlier...