There is a vast empirical literature rejecting uncovered interest parity(UIP) on the basis of regressions of the actual exchange rate change against the forward premium/discount. In this paper, whilst we confirm the conventional regression analyses, we argue that they constitute only an indirect...

This paper offers an explanation for the forward discount puzzle in foreign exchange markets based upon investor overconfidence. In our model, overconfident individuals overreact to their information about future inflation differential. The spot and the forward exchange rates differentially...

The study of the effectiveness of the currency market is one of the most important research problems in the field of finance. The paper aims to assess the efficiency of the Polish zloty exchange rate market. We test the market efficiency by applying two independent approaches, one based on the...

The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive...

The study of the effectiveness of the currency market is one of the most important research problems in the field of finance. The paper aims to assess the efficiency of the Polish zloty exchange rate market. We test the market efficiency by applying two independent approaches, one based on the...