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Monthly US business cycle indicators : a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter

Marczak, Martyna; Gómez, Víctor - 2013

This article proposes a new multivariate method to construct business cycle indicators. The method is based on a decomposition into trend-cycle and irregular. To derive the cycle, a multivariate band-pass filter is applied to the estimated trend-cycle. The whole procedure is fully model-based....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009703733

The macroeconomy and the yield curve : a nonstructural analysis

Diebold, Francis X.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Aruoba, S. … - 2003

We estimate a model with latent factors that summarize the yield curve (namely, level, slope, and curvature) as well as observable macroeconomic variables (real activity, inflation, and the stance of monetary policy). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764768

Scientific breakthroughs, innovation clusters and stochastic growth cycles

Stadler, Manfred - 2013

We develop a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model of science, education and innovation to explain the simultaneous emergence of innovation clusters and stochastic growth cycles. Firms devote human-capital resources to research activities in order to invent higher quality products. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009791205

Classification of west german business cycles

Heilemann, Ullrich; Münch, Heinz Josef - 1999

This paper applies linear discriminant analysis to classify West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994 into a four phase scheme (upswing, downswing, and upper/lower turning point phases). It describes the scheme as well as the selection of the classifying variables, and presents...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009793265

Asset prices, collateral, and unconventional monetary policy in a DSGE model

Hilberg, Björn; Hollmayr, Josef - 2013

In this paper we set up a New-Keynesian model with a heterogenous banking sector to analyze liquidity problems on the interbank market. The presence of an interbank market is essential to consider a situation where an increased liquidity supply by the central bank is only partially passed on to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010192797

Intensity-based permit quotas and the business cycle : does flexibility pay off?

Kuuselaa, Olli-Pekka; Amacher, Gregory S.; Tsang, Kwok Ping - 2013

Tradable permit markets for carbon dioxide (C02) emissions respond to short-run fluctuations in economic activity. To provide stability, both price and quantity interventions have been proposed. This paper focuses on the relative performance of fixed versus intensity allowances in the presence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010245634

A cross-country analysis of the risk factors for depression at the micro and macro level

Melgar, Natalia; Rossi, Máximo - 2010

Past research has provided evidence of the role of some personal characteristics as risk factors for depression. However, few studies have examined jointly their specific impact and whether country characteristics change the probability of being depressed. In general, this is due to the use of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010246569

The European Commission's scoreboard of macroeconomic imbalances : the impact of preferences on an early warning system ; conference paper

Knedlik, Tobias - 2013

The European Commission s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It allows the preferences of the politicians involved to be analysed with regard to the two potential errors of an early warning system missing a crisis and issuing a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337846

Markov switching with endogenous number of regimes and leading indicators in a real-time business cycle forecast : conference paper

Theobald, Thomas - 2013

turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession … the recession in the aftermath of the financial crisis structurally exceeded previous ones. In fact it turns out that the … Markov Switching model can signal quite early whether a conventional recession will occur or whether an economic downturn …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339952

Cyclicality of job and worker flows : new data and a new set of stylized facts ; conference paper

Bachmann, Ruediger; Bayer, Christian; Seth, Stefan; … - 2013

We study the relationship between cyclical job and worker flows at the plant level using a new data set spanning from 1976-2006. We find that procyclical labor demand explains relatively little of procyclical worker flows. Instead, all plants in the employment growth distribution increase their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340557