This paper documents that surprise election outcomes - measured as deviations between realised vote shares and expected vote shares based on a newly constructed dataset of opinion polls and party and candidate vote shares close to election day - are causing non-negligible short-term contractions...

We analyze media repression in Putin's Russia (2004-2019), a smart dictatorship that mimics democratic institutions, notably relatively free elections, and a relatively free press. Drawing on a unique granular dataset on journalist harassment and the pre-determined, staggered timing of local...

Although the rational choice approach remains the theoretical modeling paradigm in economics and political sciences, the relevance of behavioral factors such as heuristics and biases has been increasingly acknowledged in both fields over the last decades. Against this background, and in honor...