There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, we construct a model where individuals, with and without pain, choose whether to misuse opioids knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of opioid use. Markov...

This paper proposes a stochastic mortality model featuring both permanent longevity jump and temporary mortality jump processes. A trend reduction component describes unexpected mortality improvement over an extended period of time. The model also captures the uneven effect of mortality events...

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure, as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and...

Three profound changes -- the mortality, fertility and contraception transitions -- characterized the Victorian era in England. Economists, following Becker (1960), focus on the first two and underplay the third by assuming couples can achieve their fertility target at no cost. The historical...

Longitudinal, disease-level data are used to analyze the impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity (mean age at death), hospital utilization, and medical expenditure in Greece during the period 1995-2010. The estimates indicate that pharmaceutical innovation increased mean age at death by...

This study compares two US BMI data sets, one from the 1800s and the other from the early 2000s, to determine how black and white male obesity rates varied between 1800 and 2000. The proportion of individuals who were obese rather than overweight is responsible much of the increase in obesity....

We use longitudinal, disease-level data to analyze the impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity and medical expenditure in Sweden, where mean age at death increased by 1.88 years during the period 1997-2010. Pharmaceutical innovation is estimated to have increased mean age at death by...

A number of studies suggest that mortality rates among East German men increased in the wake of reunification, in particular between 1989 and 1991, in some age groups by up to thirty percent. This study first examines the developments of mortality and cause of death statistics based on detailed...

The United States is enduring the worst drug overdose crisis in its history. Relative to previous overdose epidemics, the opioid crisis is marked by its severity, breadth, and demographics. Some demographic groups have experienced staggering rates of overdose growth. I examine overdose trends...

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by...