This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflation and interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based on the predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2007) and Andersson and Karlsson (2007) is used to combine the...

This paper sets up and estimates a structural model of Australia as a small open economy using Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recent studies, the paper shows that a small micro-founded model can capture the open economy dimensions quite well. Specifically, the model attributes a substantial...

This paper introduces private information into the dynamic pricing decision of firms in an otherwise standard new Keynesian model by adding an idiosyncratic component to firms’ marginal costs. The model can then replicate two stylised facts about price changes: aggregate inflation responds...

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it is and this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. We present a tractable model that features an information structure in which some types of signals are more likely to be observed after unusual...

imperfectly informed traders.

Public signals are well-known to be particularly influential when privately informed agents interact strategically (e.g. Morris and Shin AER 2002). Public signals are by definition common knowledge and that fact makes such signals particularly useful for individual agents who want to predict...

Public signals are well-known to be particularly influential when privately informed agents interact strategically (e.g. Morris and Shin AER 2002). However, that a signal is ``public" in the common knowledge sense is a much stronger assumption than what is implied by the everyday meaning of the...

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to form higher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper explores dynamic higher order expectations in a setting where it is common knowledge that agents are rational Bayesians. This...

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nested information sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises. Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposes a conceptually and observationally distinct...

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it is and this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. In particular, we analyze the consequences of information structures in which some types of signals are more likely to be observed after unusual...