We investigate for 26 OECD economies if their current account imbalances are driven by stochastic trends. Standard ADF results are contrasted with tests accounting for the bounded support of the current account. Neglecting the latter feature might give misleading results in the sense that ADF...

The paper provides Monte Carlo evidence on the performance of general-to-specific and specific-to-general selection of explanatory variables in linear (auto)regressions. In small samples the former is markedly inefficient in terms of ex-ante forecasting performance.

What does the saving-investment (SI) relation really measure and how should the (SI) relation be measured? These are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allow to...

We introduce a new, factor based bootstrap approach which is robust under heteroskedastic error terms for inference in functional coefficient models. Modeling the functional coefficient parametrically, the bootstrap approximation of an F statistic is shown to hold asymptotically. In simulation...

We consider the problem of ex-ante forecasting conditional correlation patterns using ultra high frequency data. Flexible semiparametric predictors referring to the class of dynamic panel and dynamic factor models are adopted for daily forecasts. The parsimonious set up of our approach allows to...

In panel data econometrics the Hausman test is of central importance to select an e?cient estimator of the models' slope parameters. When testing the null hypothesis of no correlation between unobserved heterogeneity and observable explanatory variables by means of the Hausman test model...

In this paper bilateral models formalizing monthly growth of US imports and exports are employed to investigate the potential of nonlinear relationships linking exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth. Parametric linear and nonlinear as well as semiparametric time series models are evaluated...

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and international trade. In empirical studies the estimated impacts of exchange rate uncertainty on trade figures are at most weak and often ambiguous with respect to their...

In this note a Monte Carlo approach is suggested to determine critical values for diagnostic tests of Value-at-Risk models that rely on binary random variables. Monte Carlo testing offers exact significance levels in finite samples. Conditional on exact critical values the dynamic quantile test...

Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral...