To confront the challenge that disaster risk is “dark matter” in finance, we construct an objective measure of disaster risk, which is able to predict half of GDP crashes in a sample of 20 advanced economies between 1870 and 2021. Despite this significant predictability, we find no...

We examine the cross-section of international equity risk premia with machine learning methods. We identify, classify, and calculate 88 market characteristics and use them to forecast country returns with various machine learning techniques. While all algorithms produce substantial economic...

Private equity has traditionally been thought to provide diversi cation bene ts. However, these benefi ts may be lower than anticipated. We find that private equity suffers from signifi cant exposure to the same liquidity risk factor as public equity and other alternative asset classes. The...