In this study, a Structural Vector Autoregression model (SVAR) is employed to decompose how supply/demand structural shocks affect food and fuel prices within fuel and corn markets. Results indicate that the relative importance of each structural shock in explaining the variation of corn prices...

In this paper, a dynamic optimization model was developed to simulate how farm-level realized price and profitability respond to yield change which was induced by climate change. Producers' acreage response was included in the dynamic model considering crop rotation effect. In the crop rotation...

The US Environmental Protection Agency announced a waiver allowing an increase in the Fuel-Ethanol blend limit (the “blend wall” ) from 10% (E10) to 15% (E15) on October,2010.Justifications for the waiver are reduced vehicle fuel prices and less consumption of petroleum gasoline, leading to...

Using principal component analysis, a climate index is developed to estimate the linkage between climate and crop yields. The indices based on three climate projections are then applied to forecast future crop yield responses. We identify spatial heterogeneity of crop yield responses to future...

This paper presents a dynamic crop rotation model that shows how crop yield and price volatility could impact crop mix and acreage response under crop rotation considerations. Specifically, a discrete Markov decision model is utilized to optimize producers’ crop rotation decision within a...

The objective of this study is to compare the effects of climate change on crop yields across different regions. A Principal Component Regression (PCR) model is developed to estimate the historical relationships between weather and crop yields for corn, soybeans, cotton, and peanuts for several...

Using an agent-based model, we simulate the climate-induced agricultural labor migration for alternative future climate scenarios. For each agent, the probability of migration is calculated as a function of a set of relevant factors using a logistic regression model. Historical U.S. agricultural...