This paper assesses the Treasury's tax revenue forecasts using the theory and econometric methods of rational expectations. Three categories of taxes are examined--income tax, customs and excise, and corporation tax. The hypotheses of weak and strong rationality are subjected to test in all...

This paper attempts to examine the perennial question of the relationship between unemployment and crime using regional data for Scotland over the period 1974 to 1988. The econometric problems posed by autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and cross-sectional correlation are addressed within a...

This paper uses data drawn from the English Football League to model hazard rates for club managers in the 2002/3 season. Nearly one-third of managers involuntarily exited employment status with their club in that season. We model the hazard on the basis of a spell at risk, rather than the...

This paper examines pay determination in the labor market of a professional team sport hitherto neglected by researchers in the U.S. Using data on 361 Major League Soccer (MLS) players for one recent league season, mean and median regression models are exploited to investigate salary...

A United Kingdom (UK) parliamentary seat is commonly referred to as ‘marginal’ if the majority is less than 10% of votes cast thus rendering the seat vulnerable on a swing of 5%. This paper investigates whether the spending behaviour of MPs on selected constituency service expenditure...

An error correction model is fitted to monthly data on net retail prices for the United Kingdom over the period January 1982 to June 1995 in order to examine the short-run response of retail petrol prices to changes in input costs and the exchange rate. The hypothesis of a symmetric response by...

This article uses player/match-level data from five seasons of the English Premiership League (EPL) to test for home bias and referee susceptibility to social pressure in the application of the most stringent disciplinary sanction available to a referee. We find persuasive evidence for the...

This study examines the performance of the men's senior national soccer teams of England and France between the years 1996 and 2011. The article models team performance using an array of match-specific variables including the racial composition of the starting XI. We find no definitive evidence...

This paper uses aggregate data from 42 police-force areas over 12 years to test predictions of Becker's economic model of crime. The effects of measures for deterrence on the incidence of three types of acquisitive criminal activity (burglary, theft, robbery) in England and Wales are explored....