This article provides empirical evidence from the ‘first wave of globalization’ in the 19th century for the question as to how commodity markets integrated domestically and internationally. I apply a dynamic factor model borrowed from business cycle analysis that for the first time allows me...

This article has two aims: First, it is a contribution to development economics, in particular to the literature about food risk in rural economies. We contribute by emphasizing crop diversification as a means of reducing the variance of household food production, and by providing empirical...

This article analyzes international business cycles in Europe 1862-1913 using disaggregated data and Dynamic Factor Analysis. In comparison with estimates of real national product there is more evidence for international business cycles in disaggregated data of Germany, France and Great Britain...

This article presents new data on grain production, storage and prices in Saxony between 1789 and 1830. We contribute to three interrelated debates. First, we discuss whether monthly price increases were sufficient to cover storage costs, and how they relate to storage levels at the end of the...

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed after...

This paper presents a new view on the gold price of greenbacks during and after the American Civil War by analyzing exchange-rate volatility rather than exchange-rate levels. Our empirical investigation detects regimes of high and low volatility alternating in a way that is consistent with a...

In recent years, there has been an increasing focus by policymakers on rural infrastructure in the United States, including most recently tax credits to encourage investment. Previous work has documented the importance of railroad expansion for nineteenth century development, and demonstrated...

This study investigates the relation of pre-railroad transport infrastructure on Westphalian grain market integration in the early 19th century. It is motivated by recently found indications of macroeconomic change in Prussia such as increased demand for labour, disappearance of positive...