This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

The present paper documents that political stability is positively associated with the extent of domestic trade. In explaining this regularity, we provide a model where political cohesion is linked to the emergence of a fully functioning market economy. Without market exchange, the welfare of...

Recent industry studies found the Internet backbone industry competitive. In our paper we explore a novel route to monitor for market power using prices and quality data from Band-X. First we test the hypothesis that Europe is a connectivity market on its own, unchallenged by the US and then, by...

Many industrialised countries have experienced an increase in environmental awareness and support to green lobby groups in past decades. This paper develops a political-economy model to investigate to what extent a rise of environmentalism, via the induced change in political power structures,...

This paper reports an empirical investigation into the welfare impacts of an introduction of private sector participation into the Philippines electricity generation sector, by liberalizing the market for independent power producers (IPPs) during the power crisis of 1990-1993. This study uses a...

This paper applies the concept of regulatory threat to analyse the electricity supply industry in Germany, where in contrast to other European member states, there is no ex-ante regulation of network access charges. Instead, network access relies on industrial self-regulation and ex-post control...

Long-term contracts for electricity can counter market power and reduce prices in short-term markets. If electricity retailers face competition, however, companies signing long-term contracts are exposed to the risk that a fall in short-term prices would allow rivals to buy on the spot market...

A new class of model-based filters for extracting trends and cycles in economic time series is presented. These low pass and band pass filters are derived in a mutually consistent manner as the joint solution to a signal extraction problem in an unobserved components model. The resulting trends...