The implications of uncertain policy preferences for the targeting and contracting approaches to monetary policy are investigated. It is shown that, in the presence of uncertain preferences, a linear incentive contract in the sense of Walsh performs better than an explicit inflation target as...

n this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has effects on the...

This paper examines the implications of the expectations theory of the term structure for the implementation of inflation targeting. We show that the term structure weakens the transmission of short-term interest rates to ultimate policy objectives. Therefore, short term interest rates in the...

Policy brief on the impacts of COVID-19 on long-term food security. The brief looks at three scenarios for food security by 2040, and quantifies the impact of COVID-19 on undernourishment by 2040. It then moves to unpacking the underlying drivers of food supply, food access and food utilization

Guinea-Bissau is currently one of the least developed countries in the world, ranking 178th out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index (2019). We study the economic and human development outlook to 2040. We show that economic growth will improve the human condition in Guinea-Bissau...

The spread of COVID-19 has been devastating for the millions of people who have been infected by the virus and lost their lives and the tens of millions of people who have lost their work and livelihoods. Governments and civil society have responded swiftly to the virus with policies that reduce...

A stylised fact of monetary policy making is that central banks do not immediately respond to new information but rather seem to prefer to wait until sufficient 'evidence' to warrant a change has accumulated. However, theoretical models of inflation targeting imply that an optimising central...

Policy brief that uses scenarios to explore the long-term trends in child stunting and the impact of COVID-19 thereon. The policy brief introduces three scenarios on COVID-19 impacts on child stunting today and towards 2040. It then quantifies these long-term impacts for the world and for...

A large share of the global population today is food insecure, with 10.9 percent of the global population undernourished in 2019 and 23.0 percent of children under five affected by stunting. Safe and affordable access to a diverse, nutritious diet is a basic human need and human right, and food...

This Paper analyses the optimal degree of flexibility under a Lucas type convex Phillipscurve. As a benchmark, we first analyse optimal monetary policy with a linear Phillipscurve and persistent cost-push shocks. As in Svensson (1997a), a central banker who possesses private information and who...