It is shown that a natural self-averaging phenomenon can transform the initially (on a microscopic level) lognormal distribution into bi-lognormal one. Comparison with Hong Kong stock market (Hang Seng index) is used to show that this mechanism is working for different time lags and, therefore,...

This paper investigates price fluctuations in the Brazilian stock market. We employ a recently developed methodology to test whether the Brazilian stock price returns present a power law distribution and find that we cannot reject such behavior. Empirical results for sub-partitions of the time...

We present our recent studies on the development of a statistical model of stock market data. For some stock market data, the statistical distribution of closing prices normalized by the corresponding traded volumes, fits well a log-normal law. For other stocks, the log-normal law is obtained...

This paper examines the ability of financial variables to predict future economic growth above and beyond past economic activity in a small open economy in the euro area. We aim to clarify potential differences in forecasting economic activity during different economic circumstances.

In the period from 1880 to 1913, time-varying German and British stock market returns are related to business cycle variables such as the deviation of industrial production from trend. Common British and German business cycle dynamics Granger cause stock returns and explain more than 20% of time...

We find that information communicated through monetary policy statements has important business cycle dependent implications for stock prices. For example, during periods of economic expansion, stocks tend to respond negatively to announcements of higher rates ahead. In recessions, however, we...

The paper addresses the question of how the exchange rate dynamics affects the analysis of linkages between national stock markets. We consider two ways of tackling the problem. The first one consists in denominating the analyzed quotations in the same currency. The second deals with a direct...

We analyze stock market reactions to announcements of political appointments from the private sector and corporate appointments of former government officials. Using unique data on corporate affiliations and announcements of all Senate-confirmed U.S. Defense Department appointees of six...

This paper examines the impact of Federal Funds rate (FFR) surprises on stock returns in the United States over the period 1989-2009, focusing on the impact of the recent financial crisis. We find that prior to the crisis, stock prices increased as a response to unexpected FFR cuts. State...