Die Weltkonjunktur dürfte im Prognosezeitraum moderat expandieren. Die Weltproduktion wird 2024 um 2,9 % und 2025 um 3,0 % zunehmen. Der Welthandel wird dabei etwas an Fahrt aufnehmen; im Jahresdurchschnitt 2024 um 2,1 % und im nächsten Jahr um 3,0 %. Die deutsche Konjunktur befindet sich seit...

Die deutsche Inflationsrate lag im September 2024 mit 1,6 % nochmals deutlich niedriger als im Vormonat (1,9 %). Ausschlaggebend war erneut ein kräftigerer Rückgang der Energiepreise ( 7,6 % nach -5,1 % im August 2024). Die Kernrate ohne Energie, Nahrungsmittel, Alkohol und Tabak erhöhte sich...

This paper explains why the debt reduction motive for countries that are subject to borrowing constraints and a volatile environment is greater than for those with a more stable environment and relatively better access to the financial markets. In particular, it shows that the possibility of...

The People''s Bank of China (PBC) has made great strides in modernizing its monetary policy frameworks but their effectiveness will diminish as the sophistication of the economy increases. Empirical evidence supports maintaining a reference to money in China''s monetary strategy and enhancing...

Transparency is a central element in most aspects of the design and operation of inflation targeting regimes. This paper focuses on three elements of inflation targeting most closely associated with transparency: (i) the institutional arrangements supporting inflation targeting; (ii) the...

This paper analyzes empirically differences in the size of central bank boards across countries. Defining a board as the body that changes monetary instruments to achieve a specified target, we discuss the possible determinants of a board''s size. The empirical relevance of these factors is...

Using stochastic simulations and stability analysis, the paper compares how different monetary rules perform in a moderately nonlinear model with a time-varying nonaccelerating-inflation-rate-of-unemployment (NAIRU). Rules that perform well in linear models but implicitly embody backward-looking...

The move from individual decision making to committee decision making is widely seen as a major evolution in contemporary central banking. This paper reviews the relevant economics and social psychology literatures with a view to providing some insights into the question of optimal monetary...

This paper evaluates whether Georgia is ready to adopt inflation targeting (IT), a monetary policy framework that several emerging markets have adopted recently. After reviewing selected prerequisites for successfully implementing IT, the paper focuses on whether one specific precondition is in...