The first purpose of this paper is to assess the short-run forecasting capabilities of two competing financial duration models. The forecast performance of the Autoregressive Conditional Multinomial–Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACM-ACD) model is better than the Asymmetric...

Motivated by the stylized fact that intraday returns can provide additional information on the tail behaviour of daily returns, we propose a functional autoregressive value-at-risk approach which can directly incorporate such informational advantage into the daily value-at-risk forecast. Our...

We study time-varying price leadership between international stock markets using a Markov switching causality model. We demonstrate variations in the causality pattern over time, with the US being the dominant country in causing other markets. We examine the factors which determine a country's...

This paper studies the effect of capital account liberalization policies on the price discovery of cross-listings in Chinese stocks. We construct a non-linear causality framework that decomposes short- and long-run dimensions of price leadership. Our analysis shows that capital account...

Previous literature finds that anomalies are at least as prevalent in developed markets as in emerging markets; namely, the global anomaly puzzle. We show that while market development and information diffusion are linearly related, information diffusion has a nonlinear impact on anomalies. This...

Expectation errors, generally defined, have been used by previous studies to show why investors pay too much for growth. In contrast, our study analyses what actual mistakes investors have made and how they could have been avoided. We show that investors ignore the negative impact of growth on...

We analyze whether four market-based measures of the global systemic importance of financial institutions offer early warning signals during three financial crises. The tests based on the 2007/2008 crisis show that only one measure (∆CoVaR) consistently adds predictive power to conventional...

We examine how information risk and transaction costs influence the initial and subsequent market reaction to earnings news. We find that the initial market reaction is higher per unit of earnings surprise for higher information risk firms (information content effect). Furthermore, it is...