Since the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis almost half a trillion euros have been spent to financially assist EU member states in taxpayer-funded bail-outs. These crisis resolutions are often accompanied by austerity programs causing political and social friction on both domestic and...

For the London Stock Exchange we demonstrate that the signs of orders obey a long-memory process. The autocorrelation function decays roughly as a power law with an exponent of 0.6, corresponding to a Hurst exponent H = 0.7. This implies that the signs of future orders are quite predictable from...

A key challenge in modeling technological innovation is to predict future costs based on historical data. This is of great interest to academics, as well as decision makers both in the private and public sectors. For example, many corporate strategies, industry roadmaps, and government policies...

Desarrollamos un modelo basado en agentes para estudiar el impacto de experimentos de política macroprudencial sobre los principales indicadores del mercado inmobiliario del Reino Unido. La naturaleza heterogénea de este modelo nos permite evaluar el efecto de tales experimentos sobre los...

We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use it to study the problem of risk model homogeneity. The model simulates the balance sheets of insurance firms, who collect premiums from clients in return for insuring them against intermittent,...

Phenomena as diverse as breeding bird populations, the size of U.S. firms, money invested in mutual funds, and the scientific output of universities all show unusual but remarkably similar growth fluctuations. The fluctuations display characteristic features, including heavy tails and anomalous...

We empirically study the market impact of trading orders. We are specifically interested in large trading orders that are executed incrementally, which we call hidden orders. These are reconstructed based on information about market member codes using data from the Spanish Stock Market and the...