Cause-effect relations are central in economic analysis. Uncovering empirical cause-effect relations is one of the main research activities of empirical economics. In this paper we develop a time series casual model to explore casual relations among economic time series. The time series causal...

This article considers the problem of order selection of the vector autoregressive moving-average models and of the sub-class of the vector autoregressive models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent. We propose a modified version of the AIC...

The instantaneous nature of electricity distinguishes its spot prices from spot prices for equities and other commodities. Up to now electricity cannot be stored economically and therefore demand for electricity has an untempered effect on electricity prices. In particular, hourly electricity...

This thesis consists of three empirical studies in economics of education on the determinants and consequences of language-in-education (LiE) policies. The “Environmental settings – Inputs – Processes – Immediate outcomes – Long-term outcomes” (EIPOL) evaluation model is applied to...

Since its independence, Indonesia has experience a rapid and uneven economic growth. The financial crisis in 1998 has led Indonesia to decentralisation with a new political and government budget order in 2001. Researches found that the local government’s main expenditure are on routine...

The paper describes a theoretical approach to determine the downturn LGD for residential mortgages, which is compliant with the regulatory requirement and thus suited to be used for validation, at least as it can give benchmark results. The link between default rates and recovery rates is in...

India’s road transport is characterised by a historical asymmetry in the auto-fuel prices due to lack of parity between international and domestic fuel prices and artificial deflation of domestic diesel price relative to that of petrol through differences in levies. This continued to provide a...

Financial institutions hold risks in their investments that can potentially affect their ability to serve their clients. For banks to weigh their risks, Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodology is used, which involves studying the distribution of losses and formulating a statistic from this distribution....

Studies have shown that the impact of oil price volatility varies significantly across countries and within the different sectors of a particular economy. The impact vary according to the prevailing state of an economy: whether the economy is a net importer or exporter of oil; the exchange rate...

This article analyzes the process by which the monetary policy influences economies of the six countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) during the period 1980-2008. After having identified the channels of interest rate, credit and currency, we show that the...