With tightening budgets and increasingly critical reviews of public expenditure, there is a need for a careful analysis of the performance of public bodies in terms of an efficient execution of their tasks. These questions show up everywhere in the public domain, for instance, in the provision...

Issue is devoted to an actual problem to which is still given not enough attention – a problem of long-term forecasting of national financial sector as a component of an economic complex. Problems of a forecast of development of the financial markets coordination with economic development of...

In the present study we develop and implement a short term exchange rate forecasting methodology using dynamic confidence intervals based on GARCH processes and we analyze whether this methodology can be used to model a regime switch in the volatility of

Factor model methods recently have become extremely popular in the theory and practice of large panels of time series data. Those methods rely on various factor models which all are particular cases of the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) introduced in Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin...

It is well known that the GCC countries are heavily dependent on oil and hydrocarbon industries, but during the 2003-2008 period, economic diversification is proceeded; enhancing the role of the private sector, encouraging FDI, and laying the ground for competitive integration in the globalization...

There exists a huge international literature on the, so-called, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which in turn, postulates an inverted u-shaped relationship between environmental pollutants and output. The empirical literature on EKC has mainly used test for cointegration, based on...

We propose autocorrelation-robust asymptotic variances of the Brier score and Brier skill score, which are generally applicable in circumstances with weak serial correlation. An empirical application in macroeconomics underscores the importance of taking care of serial correlation. We find that...

Financial asset returns are known to be conditionally heteroskedastic and generally non-normally distributed, fat-tailed and often skewed. In order to account for both the skewness and the excess kurtosis in returns, we combine the BEKK model from the multivariate GARCH literature with different...

It is well known that in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model Granger non-causality is characterized by a set of restrictions on the VAR coefficients. This characterization has been derived under the assumption of non-singularity of the covariance matrix of the innovations. This note shows that...

The method of instrumental variables (IV) and the generalized method of moments (GMM), and their applications to the estimation of errors-in-variables and simultaneous equations models in econometrics, require data on a sufficient number of instrumental variables that are both exogenous and...