We apply an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125, 2005) to study whether forecasts of the dollar/British pound exchange rate extracted from a panel of survey data are consistent with an asymmetric loss function. We find that only few forecasters seem to...

We study the rationality of the inflation forecasts of the central banks of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We reject rationality under a symmetric (Chile is an exception) but not under an asymmetric loss function. An overprediction implies a larger loss than an underprediction. We also...

Komplexe Aktien- und Wechselkurstrajektorien werden im Rahmen eines nichtlinearen dynamischen makroökonomischen Modells mit träger Outputanpassung am Gütermarkt und heterogener Erwartungsbildung auf den Assetmärkten abgeleitet. Die Implikationen des Aufeinandertreffens von Chartisten und...

In letzter Zeit stand häufig der sogenannte Gender Pay Gap in der Diskussion. Der Gender Pay Gap besagt, dass der durchschnittliche Lohnsatz von Frauen unter dem durchschnittlichen Lohnsatz von Männern liegt. Doch was sind genau die Hintergründe und Ursachen dieses Phänomens? In diesem...

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate...

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that...

Die Trump-Regierung hat Mexiko Importzölle angedroht, auch um den Bau einer Mauer zwischen den Ländern zu finanzieren, sollte Mexiko die Kosten nicht freiwillig übernehmen. Hier wird untersucht, welche Auswirkungen ein solcher Zoll für beide Länder hätte.

Much significant research has been done to shed light on discrimination of females in, for example, labor markets. Less is known, in contrast, about the amount of discrimination in the virtual world of online gaming. In an early study, Castronova (2004) finds that female avatars receive about...

We analyze the law of one price (LoP) based on BigMac and Fortnite prices. We find a positive but less than perfect correlation between the over-/undervaluations of the two indices. While we cannot reject the LoP for the Fortnite data, we find that it does not hold for the BigMac data.