Social surveys are often used to estimate unemployment duration distributions. Survey non-response may then cause a bias. We study this by using a data set that combines survey information of individual workers with administrative records of the same workers. The latter provide information on...

In this paper, we apply the theory of rational expectation bubbles to the Chinese house market. Rational expectation bubbles imply that negative returns on house prices are, theoretically, less likely to occur if the bubbles exist and persist. Based on the data of 29 cities in China, we find no...

Shared-frailty survival models specify that systematic unobserved determinants of duration outcomes are identical within groups of individuals. We consider random-effects likelihood-based statistical inference if the duration data are subject to left-truncation. Such inference with...

In 2005, the unemployment compensation for long-term unemployed was reduced in Germany. We examine how this reform affected the transition probability to employment. Additionally, we inspect how this effect varies over unemployment duration. We estimate proportional hazard models using German...

Often, the moment of a treatment and the moment at which the outcome of interest occurs are realizations of stochastic processes with dependent unobserved determinants. Notably, both treatment and outcome are characterized by the moment they occur. We compare different methods of inference of...

Social surveys are often used to estimate unemployment duration distributions. Survey non-response may then cause a bias. We study this using a unique dataset that combines survey information of individual workers with administrative records of the same workers. The latter provide information on...

Often, a treatment and the outcome of interest are characterized by the moment they occur, and these moments are realizations of stochastic processes with dependent unobserved determinants. We develop a simple and intuitive method for inference on the treatment effect. The method can be...

This paper puts focus on the hazard function of inter-trade durations to characterize the intraday trading process. It sheds light on the time varying trade intensity and, thus, on the liquidity of an asset and the informations channels which propagate price signals among asymmetrically informed...