This study investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on the non-oil exports of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the framework of cointegration and an asymmetric error correction. Threshold and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive methods are applied over the quarterly period 2000Q1-2010Q4. The...

Fildes and Stekler’s (2002) survey of the state of knowledge about the quality of economic forecasts focused primarily on US and UK data. This paper will draw on some of their findings but it will not examine any additional US forecasts. The purpose is to determine whether their results are...

Regression analysis is intended to be used when the researcher seeks to test a given hypothesis against a data set. Unfortunately, in many applications it is either not possible to specify a hypothesis, typically because the research is in a very early stage, or it is not desirable to form a...

A great amount of effort is spent in forecasting the outcome of sporting events, but few papers have focused exclusively on the characteristics of sports forecasts. Rather, many papers have been written about the efficiency of sports betting markets. As it turns out, it is possible to derive...

The Census Bureau makes periodic long-term forecasts of both the total US population and the population of each of the states. Previous evaluations of these forecasts were based on the magnitude of the discrepancies between the projected and actual population figures. However, it might be...

Previous research on defining and measuring consensus (agreement) among forecasters has been concerned with evaluation of forecasts of continuous variables. This previous work is not relevant when the forecasts involve binary decisions: up-down or win-lose. In this paper we use Cohen¡¯s kappa...

Recruiting competent personnel is crucial for the success of any organization, especially in competitive sports where the success of teams depends upon the quality of players selected. This paper examines whether football executives are able to forecast who will be the most successful...

This paper compares annual one-step-ahead forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) of the United States‟ gross federal debt from 1984 to 2010. While comparisons of these agencies‟ forecasts have been done before, they have not focused...

Organizations with large-scale inventory systems typically have a large proportion of items for which demand is intermittent and low volume. We examine different approaches to forecasting for such products, paying particular attention to the need for inventory planning over a multi-period...